The main event of UFC 143 was originally slated to be a long awaited blockbuster fight: a welterweight title defense by George St. Pierre against the always antagonizing Nick Diaz.  GSP went down again with his second knee injury in a year and the replacement main event is no less exciting, at least from a potential fireworks standpoint.  Here’s a breakdown and prediction.

Analysis: An intriguing matchup to say the least.  Although they have dangerous ground games, both Diaz and Condit prefer to standup and bang while utililzing their jiu jitsu in defense against wrestlers and takedowns.  Neither will be shooting and the jiu jitsu will cancel each other out, so expect a high volume standup war.

One would think this would favor Diaz, and in many ways it does, but Diaz has not faced a refined striker with Condit’s diversified attack.  The closest would be Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, but Santos lacked Condit’s range, explosiveness, and angles.  The Natural Born Killer is also far more creative, but it’s hard to string together those kinds of combos when you’re being peppered by fists nonstop which is what Diaz, and his brother recently as well, are known to do.  Condit doesn’t want to catch too many of Diaz’s trademark body shots, especially with the effects of such hits carrying on to the inevitable later rounds. 

Condit has to utilize his greater toolbag to gain an advantage, in particular his kicks which will help him define range.  He’s no slouch with his hands, elbows, or knees as well but I still don’t think his game plan will incorporate staying in punching distance with Diaz.  Why toy with danger? 

Because of the toughness of both fighters I don’t see either one finishing.  Both have great chins and recovery ability as well as submission defense.  Look for Condit to circle and move and use his kicks as the difference maker enroute to a unanimous decision in an exciting five round bout.