It’s time for the playoffs and The Guru’s here for a sum up of the good, the bad, the how, the where, and the why: who’s got what and why they’ll get where. I’ll keep it short for those of you who have ADD.
AFC
1. New England Patriots
The Good: A battle tested, best in AFC offense that can pile up the points.
The Bad: A defense that my grandmother could score on.
The How: By making all the other AFC teams go to Foxboro and outgunning them.
The Why: Homefield advantage and the best playoff QB (since Big Ben’s ankle is shot).
The Where: Superbowl loss. Whatever NFC team they end up facing will have an offense that will match up enough and a defense that will make the difference.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Good: Sharing the designation of the nastiest defense (with Pittsburgh) in the AFC.
The Bad: A QB that still makes critical mistakes at the worst times.
The How: By feeding the ball to Ray Rice and using playaction while their defense holds the opposition down.
The Why: Back to that battle tested defense and a multi threat back in Ray Rice setting up some speedy new receivers.
The Where: AFC championship game loss in Foxboro. Flacco will make enough mistakes and their defense won’t slow down the Pats enough to get to the Superbowl.
3. Houston Texans
The Good: A sick running game and a scheming defense led by Wade Phillips.
The Bad: A rookie QB and a broken down stud wideout in Andre Johnson.
The How: Running the ball down people’s throats and short passes over the middle. A scheming defense that creates turnovers and controls the clock.
The Why: Wade Phillips, Arian Foster, Ben Tate. Is it enough?
The Where: They’ll get past the inexperienced Bengals but no farther than that. Shame…they finally get to the playoffs and key players are out.
4. Denver Broncos
The Good: Defense. Miller, Dumerville coming off the edges. Tebowing. Jesus?
The Bad: They won by giving themselves a shot by not giving the ball away. Opposing teams have had the time to figure out how to play the option offense. They’ve had to throw the ball more as opposed to the passing game being a complement to the run.
The How: Running the ball 80 percent of the time. Ball control. Don’t cough it up. Praying.
The Why: Youthful exuberance. A stalwart defense. Thin Denver air.
The Where: One and done. A hobbled Pittsburgh team will pull away with field position and experience. The game will be close at times but the Steelers will eventually show what experience and more talent does.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Good: 21th Century Steel Curtain still in place. Speed at the wideout positions.
The Bad: Big Ben’s ankle takes away the rollout and his improvisation. The loss of Mendenhall won’t be missed as much as Roethisberger’s inability to plant and launch off that ankle.
The How: Smash mouth on the defense and Big Ben creating and extending drives with his arm and his…uh oh.
The Why: Defense. Experience. Tradition?
The Where: That bye week would have been stellar for this club. If they get up big on the Broncos, 3 scores would be enough, they should take Big Ben out. That being said, while they’ll get past Denver, without Ben being able to be Ben, they won’t make it to the AFC championship game.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
The Good: Two super rookies leading the way. A defense that can stand with the best.
The Bad: Inexperience and the inability to beat the big guns of the AFC: two losses to the Steelers and Ravens, loss to the Texans whom they face in the first round.
The How: A.J. Green blowing it up while the defense gives them a chance. Green and Jermaine Simpson will have to kill it in the air if they want to make it happen.
The Why: Green? I said before the Texans will probably beat the Bengals, but that’s contingent on Green and Simpson. Other than that, consider this an experience year for a team with a bright future.
The Where: Figuring out what other pieces they’ll need to add to take the next step as both the Steelers and Ravens defenses age and slow down.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers
The Good: Aaron Rodgers. An opportunistic defense. A prolific pass offense. Notice I didn’t say the most prolific because I think New Orleans has a better one. Speaking of New Orleans, does anyone else think this Green Bay team looks a lot like the Superbowl winning Saints team of 2010?
The Bad: Not much of a running game to grind it out and mix it up. Just like the Patriots, a defense that can’t stop anyone. For most of the season, they were able to get the turnover or stop at the end of the game when they needed, but can they count on that in the playoffs? Still, this defense has experience and talent. I expect them to lock it down more in the playoffs.
The How: Outgunning opponents in the air and doing enough on D. Taking advantage of he cold confines of Lambeau.
The Why: Home Field through the playoffs. Best team in the NFL? Maybe…but they’ve looked out of sorts lately. They’re healthy which is a plus and the bye week will help get Jennings back.
The Where: I took New Orleans before the season began. I’m going to stick with that prediction despite the Saints being different away from home. Packers get to the NFC championship game but don’t make it to Indy.
2. San Francisco
The Good: A shutdown defense and an offense that churns out yards methodically while not coughing it up.
The Bad: Is Patrick Willis ready to go? Can Alex Smith get it done under pressure? Will inexperience come into play? Who will win out…superior defense and ball control or the high powered offenses coming out of Green Bay and New Orleans?
The How: Same formula as the regular season. Everyone knows you can’t run on them, but can their front line create enough pressure and upset the rhythm of a Rodgers, Brees, or Manning?
The Why: Go up and look at The Good.
The Where: They’ll sit their bye week and go out in their first playoff game in a long time.
3. New Orleans Saints
The Good: Tearing it up of late. Best offense in the NFL and has a running game to boot. No one can stop this offense. And defense that is picking it up.
The Bad: They’ll have to go into Green Bay if they want to make it to Indy.
The How: Staying unstoppable on offense, not abandoning the running game. Their defense is better than people give it credit for with Shaun Rogers in the middle, Jonathan Vilma roaming behind the line, and Roman Harper in the secondary. But can the defense make enough plays and stops to go all the way against the other high powered offenses in the NFL?
The Why: Football is a momentum game and no team is going into the playoffs with more than the Saints. The offense looks unstoppable.
The Where: As a huge New York Football Giants fan, I hate to say this but….this New Orleans Saints team is this year’s NFC Super Bowl representative and winner. Sorry Juice, the Cowboys didn’t even make the playoffs.
4. New York Giants
The Good: A front four pass rush that’s looking like the championship team of 2008. A crunch time “top 5 NFL QB” in Eli Manning. A running game that’s coming on late in the season.
The Bad: It may be coming on, but the running game is still unreliable. They can throw the ball, but they become predictable when they do. The secondary is sorely exposed when the pass rush is missing. They are vulnerable up the middle once an opposing runner gets past the frontline or a tight end or slot receiver comes in on a slant.
The How: Eli’s going to have to play like he did in that championship year, but more so, everything hinges on Tuck, Umenyiora, JPP, and Kiwanuka being able to generate pressure without Perry Fewel having to dial up blitzes. They will face the passing offenses of Matt Rayn and the Falcons first, then possibly Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, and then Drew Brees and the Saints. That’s sick. If they can’t get pressure up front and try to bring extra guys to get a pass rush, those three QB’s will carve them up.
The Why: They’re playing well but let’s face it, this is not the Superbowl winning team of 2008. The pass rush is there, but they’re weak at linebacker and at the corners. They are now a passing as opposed to a pound it in your face running offense. They’re much stronger than in 2008 in the pass game, but is that enough to get back to the Bowl?
The Where: I’m not going to write down a prediction for Big Blue. You can figure it out but I hope I’m wrong.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Good: Another one of the NFL’s multi angle passing attacks but also with a reliable running game with Michael Turner in the backfield. A run defense allowing under 4 yards a carry.
The Bad: The most overhyped team in the preseason (other than the Eagles) have earned their way into the playoffs but have been inconsistent. They have all the tools but don’t seem to be able to put it together as well as the other elite teams. Can they turn the corner this year and win a playoff game?
The How: Spreading the ball to all their weapons on offense. Using clock management and ball control to maintain possession longer than their opponents.
The Why: Of all the NFC playoff teams other than San Fran, they’re the only team that has a tier one runner in Michael Turner.
The Where: They’re a dangerous team, but they still need time to develop. One and out in New York.
6. Detroit Lions
The Good: Powerful defensive frontline, a red hot gun slinging young QB, and the NFL’s best wide receiver.
The Bad: Maturity, inexperience, and a swiss cheese secondary that is facing New Orleans in the first round.
The How: Dominating the frontline with Suh and Fairley to give them a shot in the NFC shootouts. The frontline has to make up for the secondary’s mistakes.
The Why: Massive talent.
The Where: One and out as they plan for how to take the next step.
The Why: Home Field through the playoffs. Best team in the NFL? Maybe…but they’ve looked out of sorts lately. They’re healthy which is a plus and the bye week will help get Jennings back.
The Where: I took New Orleans before the season began. I’m going to stick with that prediction despite the Saints being different away from home. Packers get to the NFC championship game but don’t make it to Indy.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Good: Tearing it up of late. Best offense in the NFL and has a running game to boot. No one can stop this offense. And defense that is picking it up.
The Bad: They’ll have to go into Green Bay if they want to make it to Indy.