If you have Aaron Rodgers as your Fantasy QB, as I have, you've been elated up to this point. He has been the most consistent fantasy contributor in a season that may be the greatest ever put together by a QB. You should have also been rooting for the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving. Here's why.
With San Fran now 9-2 and Green Bay 11-0, Green Bay has the number 1 seed in the NFC all but wrapped up. The 49ers were the last possible challenge to Green Bay's NFC's top seed status. That means Rodgers may be sitting come the last few weeks of the season. Let's take a look at the potential scenario.
Green Bay plays 3 potential playoff contenders in the final five games of their season. Conventional wisdom two weeks ago would have said December 4th at the New York Giants would be the most ominous of these, but with the Giants now sporting an anemic running game without Ahmad Bradshaw and an inexperienced middle linebacking corps, the Giants are reeling and look out of rhythm. We may be looking at another late season collapse by Big Blue.
Green Bay finishes the season at home against two divsion rivals: The Bears and The Lions. It remains to be seen how good the Bears can be without Jay Cutler, who has been a playmaker since Chicago changed their offensive scheme to give him time to throw. Chicago also has the only challenger to Rodgers' MVP status in Matt Forte. Ball control through Forte in combination with Chicago's savvy defense may be enough to pick off Green Bay. As for Detroit, they have the talent, but not the experience or maturity as witnessed on Thanksigving. The Lions aren't there yet and come the final week of the season, the game between Detroit and Green Bay may have no bearing on the playoff landscape.
That makes two real challenges to Green Bay's loss column. San Francisco has an easy schedule as a result of them playing division rivals in the weak NFC West for the final weeks of the season. The only hiccup is a tilt with the Pittsburgh Steelers. That game is in San Fran on December 19th. The rest of San Fran's schedule consists of Arizona, Seattle, and the disappointing St. Louis Rams TWICE. It's conceivable that San Fran will win out the rest of their games if they get by Pittsburgh.
That may be a moot point at this juncture. San Fran would need Green Bay not only to lose two games, but one has to be in their division for the 49ers to gain the number 1 seed in the NFC. There are other factors of course. Does Green Bay care about perfection? Will they take the Pats approach and go all out for 19-0 or will they not run the risk?
When asked about reaching a perfect season during the post game show after demolishing Minnesota, Aaroon Rodgers said there are no unimportant games. Don't be so sure. Even if the Packers reach the final game against the Lions 15-0, don't think for a minute that Ndamukong Suh's stomping Evan Dietrich-Smith's head on Thanksgving won't weigh on the Packers' minds. Remember that Green Bay is the kind of team that throws the ball on 4th in long against Minnesota in a game where they were throttling the Vikings. They will want to send a message to the Lions and may look to embarass Detroit on Lambeau Field before heading into the playoffs. Wouldn't that be interesting if the Lions make the postseason and end up in Green Bay after the wild card game?
Taking everything into account, if you're looking to win your Fantasy League, you may want to pick up a QB off the waiver wire now just in case. My personal suggestion, if he's available still, is Kyle Orton who was recently picked up by Kansas City. Orton playing in his division with a talented receiving corps is a formula for decent fantasy value.